Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $15 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$14.67

Combined PnL

-$18.57

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$13.99

Total Shares14

Combined PnL+$1.07

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.68

Total Shares1,360

Combined PnL-$19.64

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$12.92	$13.99	+$1.07	48% 2178-2363 (4541)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.25	$0.25	-$7.55	49% 24092-24631 (48723)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$60	$0.25	-$7.55	55% 25557-21165 (46722)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.82	$0.06	-$1.76	47% 47421-53861 (101282)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$0.06	-$1.79	50% 65525-65845 (131370)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.24	$0.02	-$0.22	22% 3396-11845 (15241)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.01	— 6-7 (13)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.75	$0.01	-$0.74	14% 9500-60813 (70313)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	+$0.01	36% 9046-16195 (25241)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0.02	45% 32023-39165 (71188)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

$13.99

PnL

+$1.07

Record

48%

2178-2363 (4541)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$7.55

Record

49%

24092-24631 (48723)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$7.55

Record

55%

25557-21165 (46722)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.76

Record

47%

47421-53861 (101282)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.79

Record

50%

65525-65845 (131370)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.22

Record

22%

3396-11845 (15241)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

6-7 (13)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.74

Record

14%

9500-60813 (70313)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

9046-16195 (25241)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

45%

32023-39165 (71188)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.