Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 88¢ · $4K held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.7K
-$15.26
87.6¢ → 87.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
728h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard | Yesavg 87.7¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$4.99 | 63% 145-84 (229) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Noavg 14.3¢ | $1.0K | $943.83 | -$127.76 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
GH ghorrock | Yesavg 86¢ | $7.7 | $131.96 | +$117.1 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 86.9¢ | $32.26 | $32.67 | +$0.4 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $0.33 | $0.32 | -$0.01 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
Invested
$2,629.98
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$4.99
Record
63%
145-84 (229)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$1,001.77
Value
$943.83
PnL
-$127.76
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$131.96
PnL
+$117.1
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$32.26
Value
$32.67
PnL
+$0.4
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$0.01
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.