Will Paris Saint-Germain finish first in UCL league phase?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 67¢ · $846 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$845.98
$102.39
69.5¢ → 67¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenick | Noavg 69¢ | $373.44 | $362.89 | -$10.55 | 56% 841-660 (1501) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $260.63 | $270.2 | +$9.57 | 48% 6887-7538 (14425) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $67.21 | $142.38 | +$81.02 | 39% 1303-2002 (3305) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $35.99 | $32.79 | -$3.81 | 66% 925-481 (1406) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $11.63 | $24.53 | +$13.91 | 41% 2003-2842 (4845) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.93 | $13.18 | +$12.25 | 43% 2142-2793 (4935) |
thefakenickInvested
$373.44
Value
$362.89
PnL
-$10.55
Record
56%
841-660 (1501)
Invested
$260.63
Value
$270.2
PnL
+$9.57
Record
48%
6887-7538 (14425)
Invested
$67.21
Value
$142.38
PnL
+$81.02
Record
39%
1303-2002 (3305)
Invested
$35.99
Value
$32.79
PnL
-$3.81
Record
66%
925-481 (1406)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$11.63
Value
$24.53
PnL
+$13.91
Record
41%
2003-2842 (4845)
Invested
$0.93
Value
$13.18
PnL
+$12.25
Record
43%
2142-2793 (4935)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.