Will Paolo Banchero win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $176 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
$175.71
-$9.79
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
89h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.9¢ | $210.85 | $141.55 | -$0.93 | 58% 16819-12144 (28963) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 43% 8757-11401 (20158) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.22 | $2.72 | -$5.51 | 26% 580-1646 (2226) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.24 | $0.77 | -$1.55 | 17% 1328-6547 (7875) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.21 | $0.54 | -$1.09 | 24% 785-2554 (3339) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.85 | $0.15 | -$0.7 | 28% 576-1486 (2062) |
Invested
$210.85
Value
$141.55
PnL
-$0.93
Record
58%
16819-12144 (28963)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
43%
8757-11401 (20158)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$5.51
Record
26%
580-1646 (2226)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$1.55
Record
17%
1328-6547 (7875)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$1.09
Record
24%
785-2554 (3339)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.7
Record
28%
576-1486 (2062)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.