Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $963 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$962.7
$7.42
93.4¢ → 93.1¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-31 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1676h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 93.4¢ | $948.55 | $954.64 | +$6.09 | 85% 1868-338 (2206) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $3.34 | $3.32 | -$0.02 | 73% 176-66 (242) |
 RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $2.13 | $2.18 | +$0.05 | 56% 1191-948 (2139) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $0.72 | $1.53 | +$0.81 | 39% 1757-2728 (4485) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.55 | $1.04 | +$0.49 | 60% 978-660 (1638) |
archaicInvested
$948.55
Value
$954.64
PnL
+$6.09
Record
85%
1868-338 (2206)
Invested
$3.34
Value
$3.32
PnL
-$0.02
Record
73%
176-66 (242)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$2.13
Value
$2.18
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
1191-948 (2139)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$1.53
PnL
+$0.81
Record
39%
1757-2728 (4485)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
$1.04
PnL
+$0.49
Record
60%
978-660 (1638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.