Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $83 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$82.74
-$51.1
2.6¢ → 1.4¢
-48% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
772h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DragontreeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $24.18 | $46.52 | +$8.14 | 59% 1298-914 (2212) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $27.39 | $25.01 | -$2.37 | 59% 1021-711 (1732) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $8.88 | $6.18 | -$4.4 | 26% 7344-21109 (28453) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $56.98 | $4.62 | -$52.38 | 51% 158-150 (308) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.49 | $0.4 | -$0.09 | 53% 23775-20945 (44720) |
DragontreeCTR<$100Invested
$24.18
Value
$46.52
PnL
+$8.14
Record
59%
1298-914 (2212)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$27.39
Value
$25.01
PnL
-$2.37
Record
59%
1021-711 (1732)
Invested
$8.88
Value
$6.18
PnL
-$4.4
Record
26%
7344-21109 (28453)
Invested
$56.98
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$52.38
Record
51%
158-150 (308)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$0.09
Record
53%
23775-20945 (44720)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.