Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$0.83
-$32.85
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.77 | $0.77 | -$32.56 | 47% 8156-9340 (17496) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.11 | $0.03 | -$0.08 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.07 | $0.02 | -$0.06 | 53% 28804-25713 (54517) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.15 | $0.01 | -$0.1 | 60% 11576-7759 (19335) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.06 | $0.01 | -$0.05 | 30% 2222-5090 (7312) |
Invested
$0.77
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$32.56
Record
47%
8156-9340 (17496)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.08
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
28804-25713 (54517)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.1
Record
60%
11576-7759 (19335)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.05
Record
30%
2222-5090 (7312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.