Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 18%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$131.04

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 99.6¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,842

Combined PnL+$342.74

Yes9 traders

Total Value$6.18

Total Shares1,544

Combined PnL-$211.71

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

68h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 87.5¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$342.41	48% 1337-1437 (2774)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$9.63	$9.96	+$0.33	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
YoungAlphaGoatCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$103.73	$4.59	-$99.14	48% 498-541 (1039)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 12.5¢	$174.22	$0.66	-$20.94	39% 3178-4986 (8164)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$33.26	$0.52	-$12.62	36% 2034-3660 (5694)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$1.31	$0.14	-$1.17	77% 12520-3844 (16364)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$76.62	$0.1	-$75.38	42% 1223-1712 (2935)
10 101456CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.86	$0.07	-$0.79	52% 149-136 (285)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.85	$0.07	-$0.78	51% 151-144 (295)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$0.63	$0.02	-$0.61	17% 93-457 (550)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$0.28	$0.01	-$0.27	42% 3191-4365 (7556)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$2,478.18

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$342.41

Record

48%

1337-1437 (2774)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.63

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

YoungAlphaGoatCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.73

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$99.14

Record

48%

498-541 (1039)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$174.22

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$20.94

Record

39%

3178-4986 (8164)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.26

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$12.62

Record

36%

2034-3660 (5694)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.17

Record

77%

12520-3844 (16364)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.62

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$75.38

Record

42%

1223-1712 (2935)

101456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.79

Record

52%

149-136 (285)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.78

Record

51%

151-144 (295)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.61

Record

17%

93-457 (550)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.27

Record

42%

3191-4365 (7556)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

68h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.