Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $146 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$146.26

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

19.3¢ → 1.5¢

-92% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$143.99

Total Shares9,930

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No1 trader

Total Value$2.27

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.16

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 18.2¢	$1.2K	$136.71	$-1.4K	50% 1253-1274 (2527)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 40.1¢	$201.45	$7.25	-$194.2	53% 1878-1659 (3537)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$2.11	$2.27	+$0.16	77% 9151-2797 (11948)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$0.25	43% 3086-4125 (7211)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,201.21

Value

$136.71

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

1253-1274 (2527)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$201.45

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$194.2

Record

53%

1878-1659 (3537)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0.16

Record

77%

9151-2797 (11948)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.25

Record

43%

3086-4125 (7211)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3828.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

3928.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.