Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 4.9¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

30.4¢ → 4.9¢

-84% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,824

Combined PnL+$1.6K

No3 traders

Total Value$182.27

Total Shares3,758

Combined PnL-$585.33

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 3.9¢	$172.09	$914.74	+$931.19	21% 2284-8698 (10982)
ST Started-with-20-USD	Yesavg 13.4¢	$94.2	$614.5	+$520.68	55% 608-494 (1102)
YoungAlphaGoat	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.87	$158.54	+$155.67	45% 383-477 (860)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Noavg 12.9¢	$1.4K	$130.84	+$160.51	57% 16832-12621 (29453)
FU FulguratorCTR	Noavg 75¢	$794.25	$51.36	-$742.89	92% 61-5 (66)
HO Hourglass<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$6.27	$47.74	+$41.47	77% 9134-2750 (11884)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 14.2¢	$4.22	$0.07	-$2.95	37% 758-1274 (2032)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$172.09

Value

$914.74

PnL

+$931.19

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

Started-with-20-USD

Yes

Invested

$94.2

Value

$614.5

PnL

+$520.68

Record

55%

608-494 (1102)

YoungAlphaGoat

Yes

Invested

$2.87

Value

$158.54

PnL

+$155.67

Record

45%

383-477 (860)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Invested

$1,385.13

Value

$130.84

PnL

+$160.51

Record

57%

16832-12621 (29453)

FulguratorCTR

Invested

$794.25

Value

$51.36

PnL

-$742.89

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

Hourglass<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.27

Value

$47.74

PnL

+$41.47

Record

77%

9134-2750 (11884)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.22

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.95

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.1%

4.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1547.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

1647.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.