Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$2.4K
$10.39
73.4¢ → 78¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BiDiFakePolls | Noavg 74.6¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$61.83 | 58% 169-123 (292) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 72.1¢ | $543.55 | $243.37 | -$79.5 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 59.6¢ | $108.14 | $141.64 | +$28.05 | 53% 1813-1600 (3413) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.