Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Option K win the California Governor Election in 2026?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $234 held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$234.06

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 0.8¢

-22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$234.06

Total Shares24,862

Combined PnL+$0

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR cry.eth2CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$155.84	$155.84	+$0	40% 9709-14605 (24314)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$66.76	$66.76	+$0	42% 10352-14389 (24741)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$7.83	$7.83	+$0	33% 6459-13323 (19782)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.33	$2.33	+$0	24% 109-350 (459)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.08	$1.08	+$0	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.22	$0.22	+$0	39% 992-1548 (2540)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0	+$0	36% 2018-3600 (5618)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0	+$0	38% 3070-4952 (8022)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	52% 6272-5822 (12094)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	32% 2511-5383 (7894)

cry.eth2CTR

Yes

Invested

$155.84

Value

$155.84

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

9709-14605 (24314)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.76

Value

$66.76

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

10352-14389 (24741)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.83

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

6459-13323 (19782)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

109-350 (459)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

992-1548 (2540)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

2018-3600 (5618)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3070-4952 (8022)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

6272-5822 (12094)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5387.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

5488.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.