Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Option F win the California Governor Election in 2026?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $306 held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$305.76

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 0.8¢

-27% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$305.76

Total Shares30,169

Combined PnL+$0

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR cry.eth2CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$155.84	$155.84	+$0	40% 9686-14590 (24276)
LinaBellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$71.69	$71.69	+$0	63% 1213-706 (1919)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$66.76	$66.76	+$0	42% 10332-14359 (24691)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$7.83	$7.83	+$0	32% 6398-13301 (19699)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.33	$2.33	+$0	23% 102-337 (439)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.08	$1.08	+$0	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.22	$0.22	+$0	39% 983-1544 (2527)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0	+$0	36% 2007-3593 (5600)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0	+$0	38% 3057-4942 (7999)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	44% 6442-8142 (14584)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	32% 2469-5347 (7816)

cry.eth2CTR

Yes

Invested

$155.84

Value

$155.84

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

9686-14590 (24276)

LinaBellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.69

Value

$71.69

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

1213-706 (1919)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.76

Value

$66.76

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

10332-14359 (24691)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.83

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

6398-13301 (19699)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

102-337 (439)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

983-1544 (2527)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3057-4942 (7999)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5387.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

5488.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.