Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 8.0¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$2.2K
$-6.0K
45.7¢ → 8¢
-82% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
658h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 occasionalAwarenessCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $7.5K | $1.2K | $-6.2K | 52% 284-262 (546) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 75.1¢ | $750.99 | $909.99 | +$194 | 77% 821-249 (1070) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $36.09 | $7.63 | +$13.73 | 57% 577-435 (1012) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.84 | $2.94 | +$0.18 | 47% 2033-2250 (4283) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $1.75 | $1.13 | +$0.26 | 57% 13355-10207 (23562) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.17 | $0.94 | -$0.53 | 54% 195-169 (364) |
occasionalAwarenessCTRInvested
$7,467.83
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-6.2K
Record
52%
284-262 (546)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$750.99
Value
$909.99
PnL
+$194
Record
77%
821-249 (1070)
Invested
$36.09
Value
$7.63
PnL
+$13.73
Record
57%
577-435 (1012)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.84
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$0.18
Record
47%
2033-2250 (4283)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.26
Record
57%
13355-10207 (23562)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$0.53
Record
54%
195-169 (364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.