Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of October 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 96¢ · $711 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$711.35
$407.03
41¢ → 96¢
+134% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
304h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Yesavg 54.8¢ | $168.23 | $294.68 | +$126.45 | 28% 5987-15755 (21742) |
ST Started-with-20-USD | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $35.6 | $187.28 | +$151.68 | 55% 628-513 (1141) |
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $35.25 | $113.88 | +$78.64 | 76% 591-189 (780) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876 | Yesavg 51.5¢ | $57.34 | $106.88 | +$49.54 | 45% 114-139 (253) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $7.92 | $8.64 | +$0.72 | 56% 15523-12137 (27660) |
Invested
$168.23
Value
$294.68
PnL
+$126.45
Record
28%
5987-15755 (21742)
Invested
$35.6
Value
$187.28
PnL
+$151.68
Record
55%
628-513 (1141)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$35.25
Value
$113.88
PnL
+$78.64
Record
76%
591-189 (780)
Invested
$57.34
Value
$106.88
PnL
+$49.54
Record
45%
114-139 (253)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$7.92
Value
$8.64
PnL
+$0.72
Record
56%
15523-12137 (27660)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.