Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $101 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$100.83
$2.55
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
776h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $56.9 | $58.68 | +$1.78 | 43% 8735-11393 (20128) |
 wish-CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $8.92 | $32.71 | +$13.38 | 79% 1226-322 (1548) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $6.13 | $6.13 | -$0 | 77% 12683-3869 (16552) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $10.08 | $2.66 | -$7.42 | 39% 10143-15757 (25900) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $5.84 | $0.64 | -$5.2 | 51% 152-146 (298) |
Invested
$56.9
Value
$58.68
PnL
+$1.78
Record
43%
8735-11393 (20128)
wish-CTR<$100Invested
$8.92
Value
$32.71
PnL
+$13.38
Record
79%
1226-322 (1548)
Invested
$6.13
Value
$6.13
PnL
-$0
Record
77%
12683-3869 (16552)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$7.42
Record
39%
10143-15757 (25900)
Invested
$5.84
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$5.2
Record
51%
152-146 (298)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.