Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.2K
$771.1
81.7¢ → 93¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
55h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 88.2¢ | $1.8K | $908.83 | +$5.91 | 52% 30802-28940 (59742) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $162.41 | $122.41 | -$40 | 73% 3098-1126 (4224) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $15.74 | $80.02 | +$803.59 | 45% 1785-2178 (3963) |
LP lpgb | Noavg 92.2¢ | $500.58 | $28.23 | -$2.55 | 26% 562-1631 (2193) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 87.7¢ | $109.04 | $28.16 | +$0.27 | 31% 3239-7107 (10346) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 88.1¢ | $850.93 | $13.2 | +$3.59 | 54% 12407-10640 (23047) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $35.02 | $10.49 | +$0.29 | 28% 2746-7137 (9883) |
balthazarInvested
$1,794.33
Value
$908.83
PnL
+$5.91
Record
52%
30802-28940 (59742)
viniiCTRInvested
$162.41
Value
$122.41
PnL
-$40
Record
73%
3098-1126 (4224)
Invested
$15.74
Value
$80.02
PnL
+$803.59
Record
45%
1785-2178 (3963)
Invested
$500.58
Value
$28.23
PnL
-$2.55
Record
26%
562-1631 (2193)
Invested
$109.04
Value
$28.16
PnL
+$0.27
Record
31%
3239-7107 (10346)
Invested
$850.93
Value
$13.2
PnL
+$3.59
Record
54%
12407-10640 (23047)
Invested
$35.02
Value
$10.49
PnL
+$0.29
Record
28%
2746-7137 (9883)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.