Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $318 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$317.63
-$9.82
99.5¢ → 98.6¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod | Noavg 99.4¢ | $204.71 | $199.91 | -$4.8 | 52% 2439-2232 (4671) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $118.02 | $114.9 | -$3.12 | 52% 4926-4535 (9461) |
 TNTCo<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.34 | $1.31 | -$0.01 | 95% 53-3 (56) |
 libratus1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $2.5 | $0.86 | -$1.71 | 63% 640-368 (1008) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.65 | $0.65 | -$0.17 | 53% 323-287 (610) |
Invested
$204.71
Value
$199.91
PnL
-$4.8
Record
52%
2439-2232 (4671)
Invested
$118.02
Value
$114.9
PnL
-$3.12
Record
52%
4926-4535 (9461)
TNTCo<$100Invested
$1.34
Value
$1.31
PnL
-$0.01
Record
95%
53-3 (56)
libratus1CTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$1.71
Record
63%
640-368 (1008)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.17
Record
53%
323-287 (610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.