Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $406 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$405.76
-$9.26
99.5¢ → 97.3¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Late
185h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $139.27 | $136.14 | -$3.13 | 50% 4547-4459 (9006) |
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 99.6¢ | $104.55 | $102.16 | -$2.39 | 40% 1413-2154 (3567) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $69.58 | $68.11 | -$1.47 | 26% 899-2508 (3407) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $64.92 | $63.42 | -$1.5 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $19.46 | -$0.42 | 8% 29-324 (353) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $16.82 | $16.46 | -$0.36 | 53% 5388-4864 (10252) |
balthazarInvested
$139.27
Value
$136.14
PnL
-$3.13
Record
50%
4547-4459 (9006)
Invested
$104.55
Value
$102.16
PnL
-$2.39
Record
40%
1413-2154 (3567)
Invested
$69.58
Value
$68.11
PnL
-$1.47
Record
26%
899-2508 (3407)
Invested
$64.92
Value
$63.42
PnL
-$1.5
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.46
PnL
-$0.42
Record
8%
29-324 (353)
Invested
$16.82
Value
$16.46
PnL
-$0.36
Record
53%
5388-4864 (10252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.