Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $397 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$397.43

Combined PnL

$4.27

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 96.4¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$389.67

Total Shares403

Combined PnL+$73.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.76

Total Shares228

Combined PnL-$68.79

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 98.1¢	$107.94	$106.26	-$1.68	58% 16798-12127 (28925)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$73.18	$72.04	-$1.14	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$58.29	$56.99	-$1.29	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
RA rated<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$43.94	$48.4	+$12.21	29% 2939-7182 (10121)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$39.66	$38.64	-$1.02	31% 4440-9727 (14167)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$19.45	$19.32	-$0.13	43% 10588-14062 (24650)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$18.52	$19.32	+$0.8	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$26.83	$19.03	+$65.51	39% 10135-15757 (25892)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$9.87	$9.66	-$0.19	43% 8732-11387 (20119)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$3.86	$4.37	+$0.51	17% 4487-21969 (26456)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$164.17	$3.32	-$69.29	51% 2568-2507 (5075)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$0.09	$0.07	-$0.01	40% 6503-9752 (16255)

northdrawer

Invested

$107.94

Value

$106.26

PnL

-$1.68

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$73.18

Value

$72.04

PnL

-$1.14

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$58.29

Value

$56.99

PnL

-$1.29

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

rated<$100

Invested

$43.94

Value

$48.4

PnL

+$12.21

Record

29%

2939-7182 (10121)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$39.66

Value

$38.64

PnL

-$1.02

Record

31%

4440-9727 (14167)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$19.45

Value

$19.32

PnL

-$0.13

Record

43%

10588-14062 (24650)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$18.52

Value

$19.32

PnL

+$0.8

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$26.83

Value

$19.03

PnL

+$65.51

Record

39%

10135-15757 (25892)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$0.19

Record

43%

8732-11387 (20119)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.51

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.17

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$69.29

Record

51%

2568-2507 (5075)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

6503-9752 (16255)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.