Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $469 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$469.39
$6.45
93¢ → 97¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 90.7¢ | $317.58 | $214.08 | -$1.57 | 35% 18692-34699 (53391) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99¢ | $156.46 | $152.63 | -$3.83 | 44% 6563-8231 (14794) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $43.94 | $48.4 | +$12.21 | 29% 2911-7106 (10017) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $18.52 | $19.32 | +$0.8 | 49% 8939-9446 (18385) |
CR cry.eth2<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $26.83 | $19.03 | +$65.51 | 40% 9816-14945 (24761) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $9.89 | $9.66 | -$0.23 | 31% 3534-7906 (11440) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.86 | $4.37 | +$0.51 | 18% 4414-20716 (25130) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $160.4 | $1.89 | -$66.95 | 50% 2467-2424 (4891) |
Invested
$317.58
Value
$214.08
PnL
-$1.57
Record
35%
18692-34699 (53391)
Invested
$156.46
Value
$152.63
PnL
-$3.83
Record
44%
6563-8231 (14794)
Invested
$43.94
Value
$48.4
PnL
+$12.21
Record
29%
2911-7106 (10017)
Invested
$18.52
Value
$19.32
PnL
+$0.8
Record
49%
8939-9446 (18385)
Invested
$26.83
Value
$19.03
PnL
+$65.51
Record
40%
9816-14945 (24761)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$9.66
PnL
-$0.23
Record
31%
3534-7906 (11440)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$3.86
Value
$4.37
PnL
+$0.51
Record
18%
4414-20716 (25130)
Invested
$160.4
Value
$1.89
PnL
-$66.95
Record
50%
2467-2424 (4891)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.