Will One Nation win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $217 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$216.81
-$0
98.4¢ → 98.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
828h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 98.6¢ | $133.09 | $132.77 | -$0.32 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $48.43 | $48.75 | +$0.32 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $19.73 | $19.73 | +$0 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $13.66 | $13.67 | +$0.01 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $1.73 | $1.72 | -$0.01 | 25% 1194-3512 (4706) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.17 | $0.17 | -$0.01 | 39% 1043-1626 (2669) |
Invested
$133.09
Value
$132.77
PnL
-$0.32
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$48.43
Value
$48.75
PnL
+$0.32
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.73
Value
$19.73
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$13.66
Value
$13.67
PnL
+$0.01
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
Invested
$1.73
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$0.01
Record
25%
1194-3512 (4706)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$0.01
Record
39%
1043-1626 (2669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.