Will ON win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $682 held · ends Nov 29

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$682.21

Combined PnL

$12.66

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 97.4¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$656.77

Total Shares676

Combined PnL-$12.57

Yes2 traders

Total Value$25.43

Total Shares687

Combined PnL+$25.23

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-60 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 97.6¢	$398.32	$395.46	-$2.86	50% 355-348 (703)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$97.42	$76.75	-$10.67	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$73.44	$73.05	-$0.39	27% 3479-9270 (12749)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$52.15	$52.34	+$2.41	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$25.21	$24.75	-$0.46	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$12.99	$22.32	+$26.56	41% 3602-5114 (8716)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$16.02	$15.73	-$0.29	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$10	$9.82	-$0.18	43% 5541-7239 (12780)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$9	$8.88	-$0.12	46% 6185-7387 (13572)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.44	$3.11	-$1.33	55% 5484-4526 (10010)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$398.32

Value

$395.46

PnL

-$2.86

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$97.42

Value

$76.75

PnL

-$10.67

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$73.44

Value

$73.05

PnL

-$0.39

Record

27%

3479-9270 (12749)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$52.15

Value

$52.34

PnL

+$2.41

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$25.21

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$0.46

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.99

Value

$22.32

PnL

+$26.56

Record

41%

3602-5114 (8716)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$16.02

Value

$15.73

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.18

Record

43%

5541-7239 (12780)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

Value

$8.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.44

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$1.33

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-60 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.