Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Omonia finish first in UEL league phase?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $19 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$18.83
-$8.42
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $15.87 | $15.92 | +$0.05 | 58% 21639-15721 (37360) |
 thefakenickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $4.22 | $1.03 | -$3.19 | 50% 925-911 (1836) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.03 | $0.53 | -$1.65 | 27% 2563-6994 (9557) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | $0.38 | -$1.17 | 17% 1379-6707 (8086) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.38 | $0.38 | -$0.58 | 28% 589-1508 (2097) |
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.87 | $0.34 | -$1.06 | 61% 864-548 (1412) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.15 | -$0.47 | 17% 405-2032 (2437) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | $0.11 | -$0.35 | 49% 6603-6973 (13576) |
Invested
$15.87
Value
$15.92
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
21639-15721 (37360)
thefakenickCTR<$100Invested
$4.22
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$3.19
Record
50%
925-911 (1836)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$1.65
Record
27%
2563-6994 (9557)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$1.17
Record
17%
1379-6707 (8086)
Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.58
Record
28%
589-1508 (2097)
Invested
$0.87
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$1.06
Record
61%
864-548 (1412)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.47
Record
17%
405-2032 (2437)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.35
Record
49%
6603-6973 (13576)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.