Will Olympiacos win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$2.0K
$25.14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 97.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$9.97 | 53% 8602-7678 (16280) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $6.26 | $4.65 | +$15.31 | 41% 2126-3054 (5180) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yes | $1.59 | $1.59 | -$0.26 | 67% 27557-13860 (41417) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.25 | $0.25 | +$0.11 | 38% 7175-11791 (18966) |
Invested
$1,944
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$9.97
Record
53%
8602-7678 (16280)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$6.26
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$15.31
Record
41%
2126-3054 (5180)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$1.59
PnL
-$0.26
Record
67%
27557-13860 (41417)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.25
PnL
+$0.11
Record
38%
7175-11791 (18966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.