Will Olivia Wilde win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $381 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$381.09
-$1.53
98.9¢ → 98.4¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 98.9¢ | $176.53 | $175.8 | -$0.73 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $79.12 | $78.8 | -$0.32 | 52% 5301-4808 (10109) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $47.67 | $47.48 | -$0.19 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $34.72 | $34.63 | -$0.09 | — 0-13 (13) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.66 | $29.54 | -$0.12 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $14.91 | $14.83 | -$0.08 | 28% 2424-6147 (8571) |
Invested
$176.53
Value
$175.8
PnL
-$0.73
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$79.12
Value
$78.8
PnL
-$0.32
Record
52%
5301-4808 (10109)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$47.67
Value
$47.48
PnL
-$0.19
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$34.72
Value
$34.63
PnL
-$0.09
Record
—
0-13 (13)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.66
Value
$29.54
PnL
-$0.12
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$14.91
Value
$14.83
PnL
-$0.08
Record
28%
2424-6147 (8571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.