Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ohio State win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.6¢ · $2 held · ends Apr 20, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$2.17
-$2.96
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.26 | $1.32 | +$0.92 | 41% 2003-2842 (4845) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $4.6 | $0.72 | -$3.99 | 67% 630-315 (945) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.12 | +$0.11 | 46% 10026-11725 (21751) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.