Will Ofir Katz be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$1.1K
$1.85
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $412.57 | $413.33 | +$0.77 | 18% 60-275 (335) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $382.72 | $383.42 | +$0.7 | 50% 4565-4478 (9043) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.9¢ | $203.8 | $203.9 | +$0.1 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.82 | $59.97 | +$0.15 | 53% 5438-4880 (10318) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $49.9 | $49.98 | +$0.08 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $13.96 | $13.99 | +$0.04 | 78% 249-70 (319) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $8 | +$0.02 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
Invested
$412.57
Value
$413.33
PnL
+$0.77
Record
18%
60-275 (335)
balthazarInvested
$382.72
Value
$383.42
PnL
+$0.7
Record
50%
4565-4478 (9043)
Invested
$203.8
Value
$203.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$59.82
Value
$59.97
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
5438-4880 (10318)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$0.08
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$13.96
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.04
Record
78%
249-70 (319)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.