Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will October 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$0.3
-$6.31
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.15 | $0.15 | -$5.73 | 38% 324-518 (842) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.08 | $0.13 | +$0.05 | 26% 7395-21198 (28593) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0 | $0.02 | -$0.62 | 30% 374-866 (1240) |
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$5.73
Record
38%
324-518 (842)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.13
PnL
+$0.05
Record
26%
7395-21198 (28593)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.62
Record
30%
374-866 (1240)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.