Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 1.7¢ · $47 held · ends Nov 29

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$46.55

Combined PnL

-$10.42

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$24.55

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$1.34

No5 traders

Total Value$21.99

Total Shares1,221

Combined PnL-$11.75

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

732h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 93.6¢	$18.72	$19.64	+$0.92	26% 7287-21050 (28337)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$17.08	$17.64	+$0.56	17% 4487-21970 (26457)
BA balerinacapuchina<$100	Yesavg 90.5¢	$4.52	$4.91	+$0.42	73% 217-80 (297)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 6.7¢	$7.65	$2.07	-$5.58	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$7	$1.8	-$5.2	43% 2312-3103 (5415)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$2.4	$0.3	-$0.61	39% 306-488 (794)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$1.1	$0.18	-$0.92	31% 4444-9728 (14172)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.72

Value

$19.64

PnL

+$0.92

Record

26%

7287-21050 (28337)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$17.08

Value

$17.64

PnL

+$0.56

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

balerinacapuchina<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.42

Record

73%

217-80 (297)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$5.58

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$5.2

Record

43%

2312-3103 (5415)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.61

Record

39%

306-488 (794)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.92

Record

31%

4444-9728 (14172)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

732h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3498.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

3598.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.