Will "Obsession" win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $868 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$868.39

Combined PnL

-$68.81

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$858.81

Total Shares860

Combined PnL+$33.66

Yes6 traders

Total Value$9.58

Total Shares6,386

Combined PnL-$102.47

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.9¢	$499.5	$499.25	-$0.25	52% 30872-28974 (59846)
PL plainfolder	Noavg 99.8¢	$214.25	$209.79	-$4.14	31% 4458-9740 (14198)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.9¢	$339.58	$119.81	+$0	53% 23528-20740 (44268)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.9¢	$134.87	$29.96	+$38.05	47% 10333-11810 (22143)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.23	$5.41	-$72.96	48% 1352-1491 (2843)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$20.76	$3	-$20.67	39% 2901-4499 (7400)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.56	$0.75	-$4.81	39% 681-1087 (1768)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.74	$0.22	-$1.52	31% 739-1614 (2353)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.71	$0.19	-$2.52	19% 36-154 (190)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.01	+$0	58% 21213-15412 (36625)

balthazar

Invested

$499.5

Value

$499.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

30872-28974 (59846)

plainfolder

Invested

$214.25

Value

$209.79

PnL

-$4.14

Record

31%

4458-9740 (14198)

cigarettes

Invested

$339.58

Value

$119.81

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

23528-20740 (44268)

quietparcel

Invested

$134.87

Value

$29.96

PnL

+$38.05

Record

47%

10333-11810 (22143)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.23

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$72.96

Record

48%

1352-1491 (2843)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.76

Value

PnL

-$20.67

Record

39%

2901-4499 (7400)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$4.81

Record

39%

681-1087 (1768)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.52

Record

31%

739-1614 (2353)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$2.52

Record

19%

36-154 (190)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.