Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in October?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.1K
-$15.25
86.5¢ → 84¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
348h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BE Beyonddream | Noavg 86.9¢ | $485.96 | $433.77 | -$52.19 | 62% 195-121 (316) |
YE yesasdgfaskdfhaskCTR | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $241.63 | $322.99 | +$75.88 | 49% 40-42 (82) |
PR Prinas | Noavg 85.7¢ | $213.48 | $196.4 | -$17.07 | 80% 280-70 (350) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $120.48 | $120.48 | +$0 | 50% 391-393 (784) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $294.4 | $13.92 | -$21.86 | 59% 260-177 (437) |
Invested
$485.96
Value
$433.77
PnL
-$52.19
Record
62%
195-121 (316)
Invested
$241.63
Value
$322.99
PnL
+$75.88
Record
49%
40-42 (82)
Invested
$213.48
Value
$196.4
PnL
-$17.07
Record
80%
280-70 (350)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$120.48
Value
$120.48
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
391-393 (784)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$294.4
Value
$13.92
PnL
-$21.86
Record
59%
260-177 (437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.