Will none of these people be impeached by December 31, 2027?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$226.3
63.7¢ → 77¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
401h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 57.3¢ | $470.01 | $688.8 | +$169.46 | 73% 3098-1126 (4224) |
 ImJustKen | Noavg 70.2¢ | $563.98 | $674.48 | +$61.04 | 53% 3230-2899 (6129) |
 2B9SARB<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $155.58 | $121.86 | -$13.73 | 17% 4487-21970 (26457) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74¢ | $72.32 | $82.13 | +$5.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $63.37 | $39.73 | -$18.74 | |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $6.24 | $3.84 | -$2.4 | 40% 6508-9755 (16263) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $5 | $3.2 | -$1.8 | 17% 1308-6529 (7837) |
viniiInvested
$470.01
Value
$688.8
PnL
+$169.46
Record
73%
3098-1126 (4224)
ImJustKenInvested
$563.98
Value
$674.48
PnL
+$61.04
Record
53%
3230-2899 (6129)
2B9SARB<$100Invested
$155.58
Value
$121.86
PnL
-$13.73
Record
17%
4487-21970 (26457)
Both legs:
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$6.24
Value
$3.84
PnL
-$2.4
Record
40%
6508-9755 (16263)
Invested
$5
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$1.8
Record
17%
1308-6529 (7837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.