Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.8K
$592.43
50.2¢ → 77¢
+53% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI simpleman | Noavg 50.2¢ | $700 | $1.0K | +$317.16 | 47% 452-514 (966) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $406.11 | $605.56 | +$199.45 | 53% 1088-976 (2064) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $40 | $115 | +$75 | 47% 2028-2244 (4272) |
 Debosnys<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $2.17 | $2.99 | +$0.82 | 89% 1819-224 (2043) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.