Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.3K
-$298.49
43.5¢ → 46.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
466h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HolyMoses7CTR | Yesavg 44.8¢ | $4.8K | $1.1K | -$344.28 | 54% 1540-1310 (2850) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $38.72 | $68.68 | +$29.95 | 49% 1836-1900 (3736) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $50 | $67.14 | +$20.71 | 57% 1117-839 (1956) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.5¢ | $69.63 | $37.6 | -$4.22 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $31.68 | $31.02 | -$0.66 | 23% 176-599 (775) |
HolyMoses7CTRInvested
$4,764.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$344.28
Record
54%
1540-1310 (2850)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$38.72
Value
$68.68
PnL
+$29.95
Record
49%
1836-1900 (3736)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$67.14
PnL
+$20.71
Record
57%
1117-839 (1956)
Invested
$69.63
Value
$37.6
PnL
-$4.22
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
Invested
$31.68
Value
$31.02
PnL
-$0.66
Record
23%
176-599 (775)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.