Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$5.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 56.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$52.99 | 21% 300-1140 (1440) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.4¢ | $666.17 | $590.41 | -$90.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $549.69 | $590.41 | +$37.22 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 49.6¢ | $61.2 | $40.02 | +$6.54 | 53% 6479-5682 (12161) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $55.38 | $14.53 | -$0.63 | 57% 13599-10421 (24020) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$1,408.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$52.99
Record
21%
300-1140 (1440)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.2
Value
$40.02
PnL
+$6.54
Record
53%
6479-5682 (12161)
Invested
$55.38
Value
$14.53
PnL
-$0.63
Record
57%
13599-10421 (24020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.