Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$86.99

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 91.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL+$50.49

Yes2 traders

Total Value$76.16

Total Shares896

Combined PnL+$36.51

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Noavg 89.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$50.74	53% 2122-1866 (3988)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$12.65	$50.66	+$38.01	43% 2952-3844 (6796)
LE LesterDiamond<$100	Noavg 92¢	$46.05	$45.8	-$0.25	63% 5421-3170 (8591)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$26.37	$25.5	-$1.5	56% 3078-2437 (5515)

0F62

Invested

$1,572.12

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$50.74

Record

53%

2122-1866 (3988)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.65

Value

$50.66

PnL

+$38.01

Record

43%

2952-3844 (6796)

LesterDiamond<$100

Invested

$46.05

Value

$45.8

PnL

-$0.25

Record

63%

5421-3170 (8591)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.37

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

56%

3078-2437 (5515)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.