Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 US song this week?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (9%) · Yes at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 9%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$576.76

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,857

Combined PnL+$804.4

No10 traders

Total Value$188.68

Total Shares887

Combined PnL-$227.64

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
clazzy1	Yesavg 36.2¢	$550.98	$1.4K	+$804.4	64% 464-262 (726)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$199.55	$198.7	-$0.34	16% 417-2186 (2603)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$111.35	$145.05	+$33.7
└ No leg	Noavg 44.1¢	$87.63	$53.65	-$34.04
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Noavg 55.1¢	$193.66	$52.88	-$140.79	61% 356-226 (582)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$55.88	$34.29	-$21.59	17% 1057-5096 (6153)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 30.1¢	$33.07	$29.7	-$3.37	49% 8149-8348 (16497)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 39.6¢	$39.67	$27.04	-$12.63	30% 2226-5258 (7484)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 39.8¢	$26.73	$16.2	-$10.53	17% 260-1312 (1572)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 37.1¢	$21.89	$15.93	-$5.96	25% 292-899 (1191)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$35	$5.27	-$23.22	36% 1958-3471 (5429)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$20	$3.01	-$4.59	25% 1615-4804 (6419)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 37.6¢	$7.52	$3.01	-$4.51	24% 678-2125 (2803)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.35	-$0.45	52% 456-427 (883)

clazzy1

Yes

Invested

$550.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$804.4

Record

64%

464-262 (726)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$199.55

Value

$198.7

PnL

-$0.34

Record

16%

417-2186 (2603)

Both legs:

Yes$111.3556¢+$33.7

No$87.6344.1¢-$34.04

shovelingdiggingCTR

Invested

$193.66

Value

$52.88

PnL

-$140.79

Record

61%

356-226 (582)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$55.88

Value

$34.29

PnL

-$21.59

Record

17%

1057-5096 (6153)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$33.07

Value

$29.7

PnL

-$3.37

Record

49%

8149-8348 (16497)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$39.67

Value

$27.04

PnL

-$12.63

Record

30%

2226-5258 (7484)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$26.73

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$10.53

Record

17%

260-1312 (1572)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$21.89

Value

$15.93

PnL

-$5.96

Record

25%

292-899 (1191)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Invested

$35

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$23.22

Record

36%

1958-3471 (5429)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$4.59

Record

25%

1615-4804 (6419)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$7.52

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$4.51

Record

24%

678-2125 (2803)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

456-427 (883)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.