Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 song this week?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $136 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$136.25
-$0.95
99.7¢ → 99¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $52.94 | $52.57 | -$0.37 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.86 | $39.58 | -$0.28 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.9 | $29.7 | -$0.2 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $13.1 | $13.01 | -$0.09 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.4 | $1.39 | -$0.01 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$52.94
Value
$52.57
PnL
-$0.37
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.86
Value
$39.58
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$29.9
Value
$29.7
PnL
-$0.2
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
Invested
$13.1
Value
$13.01
PnL
-$0.09
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.39
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.