Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $4K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$3.6K
$846.1
60¢ → 79.7¢
+33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nadmi | Noavg 48.7¢ | $1.5K | $2.4K | +$904.58 | 47% 2036-2256 (4292) |
 wish- | Noavg 81.6¢ | $921.68 | $899.14 | -$31.56 | 79% 1168-318 (1486) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 84.7¢ | $333.92 | $307.01 | -$26.92 | 59% 982-677 (1659) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.