Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nick Pivetta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.19

Combined PnL

-$5.21

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares377

Combined PnL-$5.21

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yes	$0.14	$0.14	-$3.81	41% 6729-9567 (16296)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$0.84	36% 1989-3558 (5547)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.3	$0.01	-$0.28	18% 4199-19790 (23989)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.11	$0.01	-$0.28	50% 1695-1681 (3376)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$3.81

Record

41%

6729-9567 (16296)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.84

Record

36%

1989-3558 (5547)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.28

Record

18%

4199-19790 (23989)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.