Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Nicholas Jackson be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $3 held · ends May 31, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$2.53
-$12.43
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $6.16 | $1.06 | -$5.1 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $4.93 | $0.82 | -$4.1 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $1.78 | $0.3 | -$1.48 | 31% 2176-4867 (7043) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.83 | $0.14 | -$0.69 | 30% 320-759 (1079) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.83 | $0.14 | -$0.69 | 30% 350-813 (1163) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.45 | $0.07 | -$0.37 | 55% 6018-4905 (10923) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.16
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$5.1
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$0.82
PnL
-$4.1
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$1.48
Record
31%
2176-4867 (7043)
Invested
$0.83
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.69
Record
30%
320-759 (1079)
Invested
$0.83
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.69
Record
30%
350-813 (1163)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.37
Record
55%
6018-4905 (10923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.