Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of October 26 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $935 held · ends Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$934.98

Combined PnL

$2.7

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$514.52

Total Shares1,009

Combined PnL+$427.15

No3 traders

Total Value$420.46

Total Shares858

Combined PnL-$424.44

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TE test456y78CTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$81.37	$361.52	+$280.15	38% 76-122 (198)
CoinTrick	Noavg 99¢	$494.01	$244.51	-$249.5	98% 3159-75 (3234)
C0 C03B	Noavg 97.9¢	$332	$166.1	-$165.9	85% 687-120 (807)
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$6	$153	+$147	18% 520-2321 (2841)
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100	Noavg 94¢	$18.89	$9.85	-$9.04	53% 194-169 (363)

test456y78CTR

Yes

Invested

$81.37

Value

$361.52

PnL

+$280.15

Record

38%

76-122 (198)

CoinTrick

Invested

$494.01

Value

$244.51

PnL

-$249.5

Record

98%

3159-75 (3234)

C03B

Invested

$332

Value

$166.1

PnL

-$165.9

Record

85%

687-120 (807)

0x7495...7fcfCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$153

PnL

+$147

Record

18%

520-2321 (2841)

Dimpled-Foal<$100

Invested

$18.89

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$9.04

Record

53%

194-169 (363)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.