Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $799 held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$798.87

Combined PnL

$-11.5K

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 0.1¢

-96% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$606.07

Total Shares491,306

Combined PnL$-11.5K

No1 trader

Total Value$192.8

Total Shares193

Combined PnL+$0.3

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

702h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$11.6K	$374.44	$-11.2K	44% 577-748 (1325)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.7¢	$192.5	$192.8	+$0.3	77% 11689-3583 (15272)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$203.57	$110.57	-$93.01	41% 1295-1879 (3174)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$198.78	$98.96	-$99.82	41% 1997-2832 (4829)
KE kegliCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$2.3	$20	-$20	51% 47-46 (93)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$87.39	$2.1	-$85.29	19% 49-210 (259)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,558.5

Value

$374.44

PnL

$-11.2K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$192.5

Value

$192.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

77%

11689-3583 (15272)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$203.57

Value

$110.57

PnL

-$93.01

Record

41%

1295-1879 (3174)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$198.78

Value

$98.96

PnL

-$99.82

Record

41%

1997-2832 (4829)

kegliCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$20

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

47-46 (93)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.39

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$85.29

Record

19%

49-210 (259)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

702h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.