Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $578 held · ends Nov 8

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$578.02

Combined PnL

-$301.16

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 98.3¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$532.51

Total Shares546

Combined PnL+$5.64

Yes4 traders

Total Value$45.5

Total Shares1,966

Combined PnL-$306.8

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.6¢	$172.87	$166.42	-$6.46	47% 8498-9698 (18196)
Lucerys	Noavg 93.5¢	$199.12	$160.22	+$6.26	75% 13065-4252 (17317)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$97.12	$99.55	+$2.43	30% 2495-5947 (8442)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$49.94	$49.49	+$1.07	18% 1302-6138 (7440)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$37.9	$37.18	+$2.87	27% 549-1481 (2030)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$323.79	$21.01	-$302.78	48% 1337-1437 (2774)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 81¢	$20.2	$19.66	-$0.54	14% 513-3102 (3615)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$8.48	$16.3	-$7.16	73% 3044-1115 (4159)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$72.33	$7.44	+$6.05	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$3.06	$0.75	-$2.91	55% 4498-3708 (8206)

mildwindow27

Invested

$172.87

Value

$166.42

PnL

-$6.46

Record

47%

8498-9698 (18196)

Lucerys

Invested

$199.12

Value

$160.22

PnL

+$6.26

Record

75%

13065-4252 (17317)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$97.12

Value

$99.55

PnL

+$2.43

Record

30%

2495-5947 (8442)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$49.94

Value

$49.49

PnL

+$1.07

Record

18%

1302-6138 (7440)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$37.9

Value

$37.18

PnL

+$2.87

Record

27%

549-1481 (2030)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$323.79

Value

$21.01

PnL

-$302.78

Record

48%

1337-1437 (2774)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$19.66

PnL

-$0.54

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.48

Value

$16.3

PnL

-$7.16

Record

73%

3044-1115 (4159)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.33

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$6.05

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$2.91

Record

55%

4498-3708 (8206)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.