Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 1.6¢ · $47 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$47.34
-$256.4
19.6¢ → 1.6¢
-92% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
74h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 93.5¢ | $199.62 | $18.15 | -$0.7 | 72% 13809-5348 (19157) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 37.9¢ | $331.95 | $13.57 | -$307.59 | 48% 1352-1491 (2843) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $8.48 | $10.53 | -$7.16 | 73% 3098-1126 (4224) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $72.33 | $2.93 | +$61.97 | 19% 2872-12252 (15124) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yes | $2.16 | $2.16 | -$2.91 | 53% 4521-4027 (8548) |
LucerysInvested
$199.62
Value
$18.15
PnL
-$0.7
Record
72%
13809-5348 (19157)
Invested
$331.95
Value
$13.57
PnL
-$307.59
Record
48%
1352-1491 (2843)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$8.48
Value
$10.53
PnL
-$7.16
Record
73%
3098-1126 (4224)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$72.33
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$61.97
Record
19%
2872-12252 (15124)
Invested
$2.16
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$2.91
Record
53%
4521-4027 (8548)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.