Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will New Zealand First Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$5.24
-$78.19
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
314h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $3.17 | $3.17 | +$0 | 41% 1296-1884 (3180) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $16.58 | $0.55 | -$16.03 | 52% 313-286 (599) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $1.3K | $0.41 | -$43.86 | 79% 10825-2846 (13671) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $164.44 | $0.25 | -$11.82 | 57% 8750-6642 (15392) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $2.79 | $0.09 | -$2.7 | 40% 5176-7803 (12979) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $2.4 | $0.08 | -$2.32 | 30% 370-853 (1223) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.52 | $0.05 | -$1.47 | 17% 223-1076 (1299) |
Invested
$3.17
Value
$3.17
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1296-1884 (3180)
Invested
$16.58
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$16.03
Record
52%
313-286 (599)
LucerysCTRInvested
$1,323.93
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$43.86
Record
79%
10825-2846 (13671)
Invested
$164.44
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$11.82
Record
57%
8750-6642 (15392)
Invested
$2.79
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$2.7
Record
40%
5176-7803 (12979)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$2.32
Record
30%
370-853 (1223)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1.47
Record
17%
223-1076 (1299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.