Will New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $543 held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$542.66
$48.24
91.8¢ → 99.3¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4949h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
20 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Noavg 91.7¢ | $486.95 | $527.3 | +$40.35 | 48% 1992-2135 (4127) |
ME MenacingTurtle<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $34.49 | $7.82 | +$48.99 | 58% 296-217 (513) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $29.28 | $3.75 | -$25.53 | 55% 3185-2640 (5825) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.8 | $2.8 | -$15.56 | 55% 1470-1226 (2696) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $0.99 | $0.99 | +$0 | 29% 2949-7189 (10138) |
Invested
$486.95
Value
$527.3
PnL
+$40.35
Record
48%
1992-2135 (4127)
Invested
$34.49
Value
$7.82
PnL
+$48.99
Record
58%
296-217 (513)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$29.28
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$25.53
Record
55%
3185-2640 (5825)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$15.56
Record
55%
1470-1226 (2696)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2949-7189 (10138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.