Will New Orleans Saints win the 2026 NFC South?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 18, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Jan 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$73.99

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 88.5¢

+21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,313

Combined PnL+$194.78

Yes6 traders

Total Value$206.57

Total Shares1,750

Combined PnL-$268.78

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StudyPrediction	Noavg 72.8¢	$921.52	$1.1K	+$192.56	53% 4638-4049 (8687)
TimeTravelerARB<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$231.56	$235.41	+$3.85	41% 2002-2835 (4837)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$154.02	$184.58	+$30.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.3¢	$77.54	$50.83	-$26.71
BA banepirCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$260	$120	-$140	49% 458-475 (933)
AN anciano<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$39.17	$41.39	+$2.22	52% 1168-1072 (2240)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$65.26	$38.49	-$26.77	74% 12148-4326 (16474)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR	Yesavg 38.4¢	$151.81	$32.02	-$83.24	43% 469-622 (1091)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$91	$10.47	-$13.31	53% 1578-1414 (2992)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$114.58	$4.94	-$5.31	51% 2116-2028 (4144)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.8	$0.66	-$0.14	40% 971-1439 (2410)

StudyPrediction

Invested

$921.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$192.56

Record

53%

4638-4049 (8687)

TimeTravelerARB<$100

Invested

$231.56

Value

$235.41

PnL

+$3.85

Record

41%

2002-2835 (4837)

Both legs:

No$154.0273.4¢+$30.56

Yes$77.5418.3¢-$26.71

banepirCTR

Yes

Invested

$260

Value

$120

PnL

-$140

Record

49%

458-475 (933)

anciano<$100

Invested

$39.17

Value

$41.39

PnL

+$2.22

Record

52%

1168-1072 (2240)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.26

Value

$38.49

PnL

-$26.77

Record

74%

12148-4326 (16474)

0x53eCc53E7CTR

Yes

Invested

$151.81

Value

$32.02

PnL

-$83.24

Record

43%

469-622 (1091)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91

Value

$10.47

PnL

-$13.31

Record

53%

1578-1414 (2992)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.58

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$5.31

Record

51%

2116-2028 (4144)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$0.14

Record

40%

971-1439 (2410)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.