Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $39 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$39.21
-$557.88
2.5¢ → 0.1¢
-94% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $208.33 | $11.25 | -$197.08 | 19% 49-210 (259) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $171.23 | $9.25 | -$161.99 | 56% 18332-14683 (33015) |
 HOG993CTR<$100 | Yes | $9.12 | $9.12 | -$58.31 | 43% 506-684 (1190) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $78.56 | $4.64 | -$73.93 | 45% 2312-2836 (5148) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.23 | $3.98 | -$49.59 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $17.98 | $0.99 | -$16.99 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
Invested
$208.33
Value
$11.25
PnL
-$197.08
Record
19%
49-210 (259)
Invested
$171.23
Value
$9.25
PnL
-$161.99
Record
56%
18332-14683 (33015)
HOG993CTR<$100Invested
$9.12
Value
$9.12
PnL
-$58.31
Record
43%
506-684 (1190)
Invested
$78.56
Value
$4.64
PnL
-$73.93
Record
45%
2312-2836 (5148)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$3.98
PnL
-$49.59
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$17.98
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$16.99
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.