Will New Mexico Lobos Win the 2026 Mountain West Championship?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 19
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.5K
$474.8
39.3¢ → 58.5¢
+49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $1.2K | $637.39 | +$93.82 | 34% 602-1160 (1762) |
AU auros2 | Yesavg 25¢ | $191.2 | $455.41 | +$256.52 | — 4-0 (4) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 39.3¢ | $312.12 | $252.37 | +$52.08 | 41% 6394-9370 (15764) |
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 39¢ | $104.77 | $153.12 | +$55.07 | 65% 957-513 (1470) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Yesavg 35.2¢ | $51.35 | $38.68 | +$17.33 | 48% 7296-8001 (15297) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$1,210.14
Value
$637.39
PnL
+$93.82
Record
34%
602-1160 (1762)
Invested
$191.2
Value
$455.41
PnL
+$256.52
Record
—
4-0 (4)
HaradwaithInvested
$312.12
Value
$252.37
PnL
+$52.08
Record
41%
6394-9370 (15764)
Invested
$104.77
Value
$153.12
PnL
+$55.07
Record
65%
957-513 (1470)
Invested
$51.35
Value
$38.68
PnL
+$17.33
Record
48%
7296-8001 (15297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.