Will New England Patriots win the 2026 AFC East?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 76¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.0K
$178.7
68¢ → 75.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-27 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 macrosteaks | Noavg 66¢ | $351.67 | $406.38 | +$54.71 | 54% 3270-2740 (6010) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 69.2¢ | $271.82 | $302.51 | +$30.7 | 50% 1694-1678 (3372) |
AN ancianoCTR | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $691.03 | $141.97 | +$92.33 | 52% 1154-1065 (2219) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 22.6¢ | $105.22 | $110.31 | +$5.09 | 41% 1997-2832 (4829) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 77.7¢ | $42.75 | $41.8 | -$0.95 | 45% 2313-2837 (5150) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $14.16 | $10.99 | -$3.17 | 41% 1399-2007 (3406) |
macrosteaksInvested
$351.67
Value
$406.38
PnL
+$54.71
Record
54%
3270-2740 (6010)
Invested
$271.82
Value
$302.51
PnL
+$30.7
Record
50%
1694-1678 (3372)
Invested
$691.03
Value
$141.97
PnL
+$92.33
Record
52%
1154-1065 (2219)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$105.22
Value
$110.31
PnL
+$5.09
Record
41%
1997-2832 (4829)
Invested
$42.75
Value
$41.8
PnL
-$0.95
Record
45%
2313-2837 (5150)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$14.16
Value
$10.99
PnL
-$3.17
Record
41%
1399-2007 (3406)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.